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Mon Mar 4 2:45 am

NCAA Hockey - Week 23 of 23

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf PWR Record NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Boston College EastEast 63 27 5 1 55 100% 100% 100%
2 Boston University EastEast 62 22 8 2 46 100% 100% 100%
3 North Dakota NCHCNCHC 60 24 8 2 50 100% 100% 100%
4 Denver NCHCNCHC 60 23 8 3 49 100% 100% 100%
5 Michigan State Big 10Big 10 59 22 9 3 47 100% 100% 100%
6 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 58 25 9 2 52 100% 100% 100%
7 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 57 20 9 5 45 100% >99% >99%
8 Quinnipiac ECACECAC 56 24 8 2 50 100% >99% 99%
9 Maine EastEast 55 20 10 2 42 100% 99% 87%
10 Providence EastEast 53 18 11 3 39 >99% 76% 8%
11 Colorado College NCHCNCHC 52 19 10 3 41 100% 68% <1%
12 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 52 19 10 3 41 100% 78% 17%
13 Michigan Big 10Big 10 51 18 13 3 39 99% 67% 9%
14 St. Cloud State NCHCNCHC 50 15 12 5 35 >99% 42% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 24 Line Movers
15 Western Michigan NCHCNCHC 49 18 13 1 37 >99% 53% X
16 Cornell ECACECAC 48 17 6 6 40 22% 37% X
17 Nebraska-OmahaNebr-Omaha NCHCNCHC 48 18 10 4 40 >99% 32% X
18 New Hampshire EastEast 46 17 14 1 35 69% 10% X
19 Arizona St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 46 23 7 6 52 <1% <1% X
20 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 44 16 15 2 34 21% 2% X
21 Notre Dame Big 10Big 10 43 15 17 2 32 <1% 3% X
22 Penn State Big 10Big 10 42 15 16 3 33 X 2% X
23 RIT AtlanticAtlantic 41 22 10 2 46 X 43% X
24 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 40 13 18 2 28 X 1% X
25 Alaska NCAA IndependentsInd. 39 15 14 3 33 X X X
26 Holy Cross AtlanticAtlantic 38 18 12 4 40 X 24% X
27 Vermont EastEast 37 13 16 3 29 X 1% X
28 Minnesota-DuluthMN-Duluth NCHCNCHC 36 10 18 5 25 X 1% X
29 Dartmouth ECACECAC 35 11 9 9 31 X 9% X
30 Colgate ECACECAC 33 16 14 4 36 X 8% X
31 Merrimack EastEast 33 13 19 1 27 X <1% X
32 American Int'l AtlanticAtlantic 32 16 14 4 36 X 9% X
33 Bemidji State CCHACCHA 31 17 15 2 36 X 28% X
34 Ohio State Big 10Big 10 30 12 18 4 28 X 1% X
35 Clarkson ECACECAC 29 18 15 1 37 X 5% X
36 Minnesota State CCHACCHA 28 16 14 4 36 X 19% X
37 Mass.-LowellMA-Lowell EastEast 27 8 21 4 20 X <1% X
38 Union ECACECAC 26 15 16 3 33 X 3% X
39 Michigan Tech CCHACCHA 25 15 14 6 36 X 21% X
40 Anchorage NCAA IndependentsInd. 24 14 16 2 30 X X X
41 Augustana NCAA IndependentsInd. 24 12 18 4 28 - X -
42 Air Force AtlanticAtlantic 22 18 17 1 37 X 10% X
43 St. Thomas CCHACCHA 21 14 18 2 30 X 13% X
44 Bentley AtlanticAtlantic 20 16 17 2 34 - X -
45 Niagara AtlanticAtlantic 19 16 16 3 35 X 6% X
46 Miami NCHCNCHC 18 7 22 3 17 X <1% X
47 Northern Michigan CCHACCHA 16 12 14 6 30 X 7% X
48 Lake Superior CCHACCHA 15 15 18 1 31 X 7% X
49 Yale ECACECAC 15 10 17 2 22 X <1% X
50 Sacred Heart AtlanticAtlantic 14 14 17 3 31 X 6% X
51 St. Lawrence ECACECAC 13 10 18 6 26 X 1% X
52 Harvard ECACECAC 12 6 17 6 18 X <1% X
53 Long Island NCAA IndependentsInd. 12 16 20 1 33 - X -
54 Princeton ECACECAC 11 10 15 4 24 X 1% X
55 Rensselaer ECACECAC 9 9 21 4 22 X <1% X
56 Bowling Green CCHACCHA 8 13 20 1 27 X 3% X
57 Canisius AtlanticAtlantic 7 12 19 4 28 X 1% X
58 Army AtlanticAtlantic 7 10 23 2 22 - X -
59 Robert Morris AtlanticAtlantic 5 11 23 3 25 X 1% X
60 Brown ECACECAC 4 8 18 3 19 X <1% X
61 Mercyhurst AtlanticAtlantic 3 9 22 4 22 - X -
62 Lindenwood NCAA IndependentsInd. 2 6 18 4 16 - X -
63 Ferris State CCHACCHA 1 10 22 2 22 X 2% X
64 Stonehill NCAA IndependentsInd. 0 2 31 0 4 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot