NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilities, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitation based upon their rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament. New - Be sure to view the new NCAA Tournament Line Movers page by clicking the cutline below or by clicking here - NCAA Tournament Line Movers - New

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

So how well did we do in predicting what teams made the tournament? This year we had 1 team that did not make tournament as we predicted, Northern Michigan. Northern Michigan was on our bubble. It was replaced by Cornell, 5 spots from the bubble (not good). Our ranking system, MWP, has always ranked teams from the ECAC lower than teams of other conferences presumably because a perceived easier schedule and fewer played games. We will be working to make the list more accurate next year

NCAA Hockey Rankings
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