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NCAA Hockey - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilities, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitation based upon their rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

So how well did we do in predicting what teams made the tournament? This year we had 1 team that did not make tournament as we predicted, Western Michigan. It was replaced by Niagara. Only one pair in error is not bad, although Niagara was not very close to cutline. We will be working to make the list more accurate next year, probably by ranking our teams by the PWR method.

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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank	Team	Conference	MWP	Record			NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank	Team	Conference	MWP	W	L	T	Win Out Minus CF	Current	Lose Out
1	Quinnipiac	ECAC	76	26	7	5	-	100%	-
2	Minnesota	WCHA	74	26	8	5	-	100%	-
3	Mass.-Lowell	East	72	26	10	2	-	100%	-
4	Notre Dame	CCHA	70	25	12	3	-	100%	-
5	Miami	CCHA	69	24	11	5	-	100%	-
6	Boston College	East	66	22	11	4	-	100%	-
7	Minnesota State	WCHA	66	24	13	3	-	100%	-
8	North Dakota	WCHA	65	21	12	7	-	100%	-
9	Yale	ECAC	65	18	11	3	-	100%	-
10	New Hampshire	East	64	19	11	7	-	100%	-
11	Denver	WCHA	64	20	13	5	-	100%	-
12	Union	ECAC	64	21	12	5	-	100%	-
13	Wisconsin	WCHA	64	22	12	7	-	100%	-
14	Western Michigan	CCHA	63	19	11	8	-	> 99%	-
15	St. Cloud State	WCHA	62	23	15	1	-	> 99%	-
Cutline - Click Here to View 0 Line Movers
16	Providence	East	60	17	14	7	-	< 1%	-
17	Boston University	East	60	21	16	2	-	X	-
18	Rensselaer	ECAC	60	18	14	5	-	< 1%	-
19	Niagara	Atlantic	59	23	9	5	-	X	-
20	Colorado College	WCHA	56	18	19	5	-	X	-
21	Brown	ECAC	55	16	14	6	-	X	-
22	Ohio State	CCHA	55	16	17	7	-	X	-
23	Ferris State	CCHA	54	16	16	5	-	X	-
24	Cornell	ECAC	54	15	16	3	-	X	-
25	Dartmouth	ECAC	54	15	14	5	-	< 1%	-
26	Michigan	CCHA	53	18	19	3	-	X	-
27	Alaska	CCHA	53	17	16	4	-	< 1%	-
28	St. Lawrence	ECAC	53	18	16	4	-	X	-
29	Nebraska-Omaha	WCHA	52	19	18	2	-	X	-
30	Northern Michigan	CCHA	50	15	19	4	-	< 1%	-
31	Robert Morris	Atlantic	49	20	14	4	-	X	-
32	Merrimack	East	49	15	17	6	-	X	-
33	Bowling Green	CCHA	48	15	21	5	-	X	-
34	Holy Cross	Atlantic	48	20	14	3	-	X	-
35	Air Force	Atlantic	47	17	13	7	-	X	-
36	Connecticut	Atlantic	47	19	14	4	-	X	-
37	Lake Superior	CCHA	46	17	21	1	-	X	-
38	Colgate	ECAC	46	14	18	4	-	X	-
39	Minnesota-Duluth	WCHA	45	14	19	5	-	X	-
40	Mercyhurst	Atlantic	44	19	17	5	-	X	-
41	Vermont	East	44	11	19	6	-	X	-
42	Canisius	Atlantic	44	19	18	5	-	100%	-
43	Michigan Tech	WCHA	44	13	20	4	-	X	-
44	Michigan State	CCHA	44	14	25	3	-	X	-
45	Maine	East	43	11	19	8	-	X	-
46	Massachusetts	East	43	12	19	3	-	X	-
47	Princeton	ECAC	43	10	16	5	-	X	-
48	Penn State	Independent	42	11	12	0	-	X	-
49	Harvard	ECAC	40	10	19	3	-	X	-
50	Clarkson	ECAC	39	9	20	7	-	X	-
51	RIT	Atlantic	39	15	18	5	-	X	-
52	Northeastern	East	34	9	21	4	-	X	-
53	Bemidji State	WCHA	33	6	22	8	-	X	-
54	American Int'l	Atlantic	32	12	17	6	-	X	-
55	Alaska-Anchorage	WCHA	28	4	25	7	-	X	-
56	Bentley	Atlantic	28	12	20	3	-	X	-
57	Army	Atlantic	18	7	22	5	-	X	-
58	UAH	Independent	10	1	20	1	-	X	-
59	Sacred Heart	Atlantic	4	2	30	4	-	X	-

Notes
X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot