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Mon Mar 18 12:30 am

NCAA Hockey - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf PWR Record NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Boston College EastEast 63 29 5 1 59 100% 100% 100%
2 Boston University EastEast 62 25 8 2 52 100% 100% 100%
3 North Dakota NCHCNCHC 60 26 10 2 54 100% 100% 100%
4 Denver NCHCNCHC 60 26 9 3 55 100% 100% 100%
5 Michigan State Big 10Big 10 59 23 9 3 49 100% 100% 100%
6 Maine EastEast 58 23 10 2 48 100% 100% 100%
7 Quinnipiac ECACECAC 57 26 8 2 54 100% 100% 100%
8 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 56 22 10 5 49 - 100% -
9 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 55 26 11 2 54 - 100% -
10 Michigan Big 10Big 10 54 21 13 3 45 100% 100% 100%
11 Nebraska-OmahaNebr-Omaha NCHCNCHC 53 22 11 4 48 100% 100% 100%
12 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 52 20 12 3 43 100% 87% 81%
13 Western Michigan NCHCNCHC 50 21 15 1 43 - 98% -
14 Colorado College NCHCNCHC 49 21 13 3 45 - 46% -
Cutline - Click Here to View 4 Line Movers
15 Cornell ECACECAC 49 19 6 6 44 X 32% X
16 St. Cloud State NCHCNCHC 49 17 15 5 39 34% 18% X
17 Providence EastEast 47 18 13 4 40 - X -
18 New Hampshire EastEast 46 20 15 1 41 - X -
19 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 45 17 16 3 37 - X -
20 Arizona St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 45 24 8 6 54 - X -
21 RIT AtlanticAtlantic 43 26 10 2 54 X 64% X
22 Notre Dame Big 10Big 10 42 15 19 2 32 - X -
23 Penn State Big 10Big 10 41 15 18 3 33 - X -
24 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 40 15 19 2 32 - X -
25 American Int'l AtlanticAtlantic 39 20 15 4 44 X 36% X
26 Dartmouth ECACECAC 38 13 9 9 35 X 14% X
27 Alaska NCAA IndependentsInd. 37 17 14 3 37 - X -
28 Ohio State Big 10Big 10 36 14 20 4 32 - X -
29 Holy Cross AtlanticAtlantic 35 21 14 4 46 - X -
30 Minnesota-DuluthMN-Duluth NCHCNCHC 34 12 20 5 29 - X -
31 Bemidji State CCHACCHA 33 20 15 2 42 X 55% X
32 Vermont EastEast 32 13 19 3 29 - X -
33 Minnesota State CCHACCHA 30 18 15 4 40 - X -
34 Merrimack EastEast 30 13 21 1 27 - X -
35 Michigan Tech CCHACCHA 29 18 14 6 42 X 45% X
36 Colgate ECACECAC 28 16 16 4 36 - X -
37 Clarkson ECACECAC 27 18 16 1 37 - X -
38 Union ECACECAC 26 16 18 3 35 - X -
39 Anchorage NCAA IndependentsInd. 25 15 17 2 32 - X -
40 Mass.-LowellMA-Lowell EastEast 24 8 24 4 20 - X -
41 Augustana NCAA IndependentsInd. 24 12 18 4 28 - X -
42 Niagara AtlanticAtlantic 22 18 18 3 39 - X -
43 Bentley AtlanticAtlantic 21 16 17 2 34 - X -
44 Air Force AtlanticAtlantic 20 18 19 1 37 - X -
45 St. Lawrence ECACECAC 19 13 18 6 32 X 5% X
46 Lake Superior CCHACCHA 18 17 20 1 35 - X -
47 St. Thomas CCHACCHA 17 15 20 2 32 - X -
48 Northern Michigan CCHACCHA 16 12 16 6 30 - X -
49 Miami NCHCNCHC 15 7 26 3 17 - X -
50 Harvard ECACECAC 13 7 19 6 20 - X -
51 Yale ECACECAC 13 10 18 2 22 - X -
52 Long Island NCAA IndependentsInd. 12 16 20 1 33 - X -
53 Sacred Heart AtlanticAtlantic 11 14 19 3 31 - X -
54 Rensselaer ECACECAC 10 10 23 4 24 - X -
55 Princeton ECACECAC 10 10 16 4 24 - X -
56 Army AtlanticAtlantic 9 10 23 2 22 - X -
57 Bowling Green CCHACCHA 7 13 22 1 27 - X -
58 Canisius AtlanticAtlantic 6 12 21 4 28 - X -
59 Mercyhurst AtlanticAtlantic 5 9 22 4 22 - X -
60 Robert Morris AtlanticAtlantic 4 11 25 3 25 - X -
61 Brown ECACECAC 3 8 19 3 19 - X -
62 Lindenwood NCAA IndependentsInd. 2 6 18 4 16 - X -
63 Ferris State CCHACCHA 1 10 24 2 22 - X -
64 Stonehill NCAA IndependentsInd. 0 2 33 0 4 - X -
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot