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NCAA Hockey - Week 8 of 23

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.


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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Miami CCHA 9 1 3 > 99% 96% < 1%
2 Michigan State CCHA 10 2 1 > 99% 96% < 1%
3 Mass.-Lowell East 8 2 1 > 99% 94% < 1%
4 Bemidji State CHA 8 1 1 > 99% 90% < 1%
5 Quinnipiac ECAC 9 1 0 > 99% 83% < 1%
6 North Dakota WCHA 8 2 1 > 99% 68% < 1%
7 Massachusetts East 7 3 0 > 99% 73% < 1%
8 Colorado College WCHA 8 2 1 > 99% 68% < 1%
9 Nebraska-Omaha CCHA 6 2 3 > 99% 57% < 1%
10 Ferris State CCHA 7 4 2 > 99% 55% < 1%
11 Alaska CCHA 8 2 1 > 99% 52% < 1%
12 St. Cloud State WCHA 5 4 2 > 99% 40% < 1%
13 Minnesota-Duluth WCHA 8 4 1 > 99% 38% < 1%
14 Providence East 6 4 0 > 99% 44% < 1%
15 Denver WCHA 7 3 1 > 99% 41% < 1%
16 Wisconsin WCHA 6 3 1 > 99% 37% < 1%
 
17 Yale ECAC 3 1 2 > 99% 42% < 1%
18 Cornell ECAC 5 2 0 > 99% 44% < 1%
19 Vermont East 4 5 1 > 99% 38% < 1%
20 Boston College East 6 3 1 > 99% 37% < 1%
21 Western Michigan CCHA 5 4 1 > 99% 26% < 1%
22 Minnesota WCHA 5 5 1 > 99% 24% < 1%
23 Merrimack East 6 4 0 > 99% 29% < 1%
24 Colgate ECAC 6 3 4 > 99% 28% < 1%
25 St. Lawrence ECAC 7 4 1 > 99% 22% < 1%
26 Union ECAC 5 3 3 > 99% 23% < 1%
27 Michigan CCHA 6 6 0 > 99% 13% < 1%
28 Rensselaer ECAC 7 5 2 > 99% 15% < 1%
29 Northern Michigan CCHA 4 5 2 > 99% 10% < 1%
30 Robert Morris CHA 5 6 1 > 99% 28% < 1%
31 Northeastern East 5 5 0 > 99% 14% < 1%
32 Notre Dame CCHA 5 5 2 > 99% 5% < 1%
33 Lake Superior CCHA 6 6 1 > 99% 6% < 1%
34 New Hampshire East 4 6 2 > 99% 8% < 1%
35 Ohio State CCHA 5 7 1 > 99% 4% < 1%
36 Boston University East 4 6 1 > 99% 5% < 1%
37 Princeton ECAC 4 3 1 > 99% 12% < 1%
38 Maine East 4 6 0 > 99% 4% < 1%
39 Michigan Tech WCHA 4 7 0 > 99% 3% < 1%
40 Minnesota State WCHA 4 6 1 > 99% 3% < 1%
41 Sacred Heart Atlantic 3 5 2 > 99% 20% < 1%
42 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 5 8 0 > 99% 1% < 1%
43 UAH CHA 3 7 0 > 99% 10% < 1%
44 Harvard ECAC 1 3 2 > 99% 9% < 1%
45 Clarkson ECAC 4 8 0 > 99% 1% < 1%
46 Air Force Atlantic 6 5 2 73% 16% < 1%
47 Bentley Atlantic 3 4 2 99% 16% < 1%
48 Canisius Atlantic 5 6 1 97% 13% < 1%
49 Holy Cross Atlantic 4 5 2 > 99% 11% < 1%
50 RIT Atlantic 7 5 0 82% 14% < 1%
51 Bowling Green CCHA 2 9 1 > 99% < 1% < 1%
52 Army Atlantic 2 7 2 75% 5% < 1%
53 Niagara CHA 2 8 2 > 99% 4% < 1%
54 Connecticut Atlantic 3 7 1 89% 3% < 1%
55 Brown ECAC 1 5 1 > 99% < 1% < 1%
56 Dartmouth ECAC 0 6 0 > 99% < 1% < 1%
57 American Int'l Atlantic 2 6 1 85% 2% < 1%
58 Mercyhurst Atlantic 3 9 1 61% 2% < 1%
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot

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