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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.


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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Denver WCHA 28 7 4 100% 100% 100%
2 Miami CCHA 27 6 7 100% 100% 100%
3 Wisconsin WCHA 25 10 4 100% 100% 100%
4 St. Cloud State WCHA 24 12 5 100% 100% 100%
5 Boston College East 26 10 3 100% 100% 100%
6 North Dakota WCHA 24 13 5 100% 100% 100%
7 Bemidji State CHA 23 9 3 100% 100% 100%
8 Northern Michigan CCHA 21 11 8 100% 100% 100%
9 Minnesota-Duluth WCHA 23 17 1 100% 100% 100%
10 Colorado College WCHA 20 17 3 100% 100% 100%
11 New Hampshire East 18 13 7 > 99% > 99% > 99%
12 Minnesota WCHA 19 19 2 94% 94% 94%
13 Michigan CCHA 25 17 1 62% 29% 4%
 
14 Ferris State CCHA 21 13 6 X 24% X
15 Alaska CCHA 19 12 9 15% 15% 15%
16 Michigan State CCHA 21 13 6 X X X
17 Nebraska-Omaha CCHA 21 16 6 X X X
18 Vermont East 17 15 7 X X X
19 Yale ECAC 21 9 3 X X X
20 Maine East 20 16 3 X 19% X
21 Mass.-Lowell East 20 16 4 X X X
22 Cornell ECAC 21 9 4 X 57% X
23 Minnesota State WCHA 17 20 3 X X X
24 Boston University East 19 16 4 X 19% X
25 Northeastern East 17 16 2 X X X
26 Union ECAC 21 11 6 X 25% X
27 Ohio State CCHA 16 19 6 X X X
28 Massachusetts East 18 19 0 X X X
29 Merrimack East 16 19 2 X X X
30 Lake Superior CCHA 16 18 5 X X X
31 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 13 23 2 X X X
32 Notre Dame CCHA 13 17 8 X X X
33 St. Lawrence ECAC 20 14 7 X 18% X
34 Quinnipiac ECAC 21 18 2 X X X
35 RIT Atlantic 26 11 1 X 57% X
36 Rensselaer ECAC 18 17 5 X X X
37 Colgate ECAC 16 16 6 X X X
38 Western Michigan CCHA 8 20 8 X X X
39 Robert Morris CHA 12 19 5 X X X
40 Niagara CHA 13 20 4 X X X
41 UAH CHA 12 17 3 100% 100% 100%
42 Providence East 10 21 4 X X X
43 Sacred Heart Atlantic 20 13 4 X 26% X
44 Michigan Tech WCHA 6 30 1 X X X
45 Princeton ECAC 13 17 3 X X X
46 Brown ECAC 13 20 4 X X X
47 Air Force Atlantic 17 14 6 X 17% X
48 Harvard ECAC 9 21 4 X X X
49 Clarkson ECAC 10 24 4 X X X
50 Bowling Green CCHA 6 26 6 X X X
51 Dartmouth ECAC 10 20 3 X X X
52 Canisius Atlantic 17 16 5 X X X
53 Mercyhurst Atlantic 16 20 3 X X X
54 Holy Cross Atlantic 13 19 6 X X X
55 Army Atlantic 11 18 7 X X X
56 Bentley Atlantic 12 19 4 X X X
57 Connecticut Atlantic 8 27 3 X X X
58 American Int'l Atlantic 5 24 4 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot

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