Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.
| Rank | Team | ConferenceConf | PWR | Record | NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | Pts | Win Out Minus CF | Current | Lose Out | ||||
| 1 | Boston College | EastEast | 63 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 100% | >99% | X |
| 2 | Minnesota | Big 10Big 10 | 62 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 100% | 99% | X |
| 3 | Maine | EastEast | 61 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 100% | 94% | X |
| 4 | Michigan State | Big 10Big 10 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 100% | 97% | X |
| 5 | Western Michigan | NCHCNCHC | 59 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 100% | 91% | X |
| 6 | Providence | EastEast | 58 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 100% | 93% | X |
| 7 | St. Cloud State | NCHCNCHC | 56 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 20 | 100% | 60% | X |
| 8 | Denver | NCHCNCHC | 55 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 26 | 100% | 82% | X |
| 9 | Michigan | Big 10Big 10 | 55 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 21 | 100% | 72% | X |
| 10 | Mass.-LowellMA-Lowell | EastEast | 54 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 100% | 61% | X |
| 11 | Boston University | EastEast | 53 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 100% | 55% | X |
| 12 | Minnesota State | CCHACCHA | 52 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 28 | >99% | 66% | X |
| 13 | Ohio State | Big 10Big 10 | 50 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 100% | 62% | X |
| 14 | New Hampshire | EastEast | 50 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 100% | 41% | X |
| Cutline - Click Here to View 21 Line Movers | ||||||||||
| 15 | ConnecticutUConn | EastEast | 49 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 17 | 100% | 20% | X |
| 16 | Colorado College | NCHCNCHC | 49 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 100% | 58% | X |
| 17 | Dartmouth | ECACECAC | 47 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 100% | 45% | X |
| 18 | Quinnipiac | ECACECAC | 46 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 100% | 36% | X |
| 19 | Arizona St. | NCHCNCHC | 46 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 17 | 100% | 23% | X |
| 20 | Clarkson | ECACECAC | 43 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 100% | 29% | X |
| 21 | North Dakota | NCHCNCHC | 42 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 100% | 22% | X |
| 22 | NortheasternN. Eastern | EastEast | 42 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 100% | 17% | X |
| 23 | Long Island | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 41 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 17 | >99% | 16% | X |
| 24 | Cornell | ECACECAC | 41 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 100% | 27% | X |
| 25 | Princeton | ECACECAC | 38 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 100% | 21% | X |
| 26 | MassachusettsMass. | EastEast | 37 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 100% | 6% | X |
| 27 | Wisconsin | Big 10Big 10 | 37 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 15 | 100% | 6% | X |
| 28 | Bemidji State | CCHACCHA | 36 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 95% | 24% | X |
| 29 | Augustana | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 35 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 21 | 94% | 1% | X |
| 30 | Michigan Tech | CCHACCHA | 34 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 18 | >99% | 16% | X |
| 31 | Penn State | Big 10Big 10 | 33 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 16 | 100% | 4% | X |
| 32 | Bentley | AtlanticAtlantic | 32 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 22 | >99% | 33% | X |
| 33 | Vermont | EastEast | 32 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 100% | 2% | X |
| 34 | Notre Dame | Big 10Big 10 | 31 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 12 | >99% | 1% | X |
| 35 | Colgate | ECACECAC | 30 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 95% | 9% | X |
| 36 | Lake Superior | CCHACCHA | 28 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 17 | 75% | 10% | X |
| 37 | Alaska | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 27 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 81% | 1% | X |
| 38 | Union | ECACECAC | 26 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 98% | 6% | X |
| 39 | Brown | ECACECAC | 25 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 100% | 6% | X |
| 40 | Minnesota-DuluthMN-Duluth | NCHCNCHC | 24 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 100% | 1% | X |
| 41 | Sacred Heart | AtlanticAtlantic | 23 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 44% | 13% | X |
| 42 | Air Force | AtlanticAtlantic | 22 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 21 | 5% | 18% | X |
| 43 | Holy Cross | AtlanticAtlantic | 21 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 11% | 13% | X |
| 44 | Harvard | ECACECAC | 20 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 8 | >99% | 2% | X |
| 45 | Bowling Green | CCHACCHA | 19 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 14 | 59% | 6% | X |
| 46 | St. Thomas | CCHACCHA | 19 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 37% | 4% | X |
| 47 | Merrimack | EastEast | 17 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 100% | <1% | X |
| 48 | Nebraska-OmahaNebr-Omaha | NCHCNCHC | 16 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 12 | >99% | 2% | X |
| 49 | Niagara | AtlanticAtlantic | 15 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 19 | <1% | 10% | X |
| 50 | American Int'l | AtlanticAtlantic | 14 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 3% | 6% | X |
| 51 | Robert Morris | AtlanticAtlantic | 13 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 14 | 19% | 5% | X |
| 52 | Yale | ECACECAC | 12 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 98% | 1% | X |
| 53 | Lindenwood | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 11 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 1% | <1% | X |
| 54 | Rensselaer | ECACECAC | 10 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 89% | 1% | X |
| 55 | Ferris State | CCHACCHA | 9 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 1% | 1% | X |
| 56 | Anchorage | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 7 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 1% | <1% | X |
| 57 | St. Lawrence | ECACECAC | 7 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 56% | <1% | X |
| 58 | Canisius | AtlanticAtlantic | 6 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 2% | 2% | X |
| 59 | Stonehill | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 5 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 12 | X | X | X |
| 60 | Army | AtlanticAtlantic | 4 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 10 | <1% | 1% | X |
| 61 | Miami | NCHCNCHC | 4 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 12% | <1% | X |
| 62 | RIT | AtlanticAtlantic | 2 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 9 | X | <1% | X |
| 63 | Northern Michigan | CCHACCHA | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 3 | X | <1% | X |
| 64 | Mercyhurst | AtlanticAtlantic | 0 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 6 | X | <1% | X |